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Private SaaS multiple estimate

Last verified November 6, 2026 · Source: SaaS Valuation Index run-rate (median market cap / run-rate revenue), Nov 6, 2026, 2:05 PM ET

Private SaaS companies trade on a multiple of ARR. This page estimates that multiple from the public SaaS index, your growth rate and your net revenue retention (NRR). At 20% growth and 100% NRR, with the public index at 5.03x (SaaS Valuation Index run-rate), the estimate is 4.15x ARR.

Estimated ARR multiple4.15x
Implied value$20.7M

−2.43 + 0.96 (index) + 1.24 (growth) + 4.38 (NRR) = 4.15x

Public index default: 5.03x, SaaS Valuation Index run-rate (median market cap / run-rate revenue), Nov 6, 2026, 2:05 PM ET. Free, no email. For a full estimate with 36 inputs, use the SaaS Valuation Calculator.

The formula

Private ARR multiple = −2.43 + 0.19 × public index + 6.21 × growth + 4.38 × NRR

The model comes from SaaS Capital's What's Your SaaS Company Worth 2024. Growth and NRR are decimals: 20% growth is 0.20 and 100% NRR is 1.00. The public index uses SaaS Capital's method, market cap divided by annualized revenue. The default index value is the SaaS Valuation Index run-rate (median market cap / run-rate revenue), Nov 6, 2026, 2:05 PM ET, which uses the same method: median market cap divided by the latest quarter's revenue times 4.

Worked example: index 4.2x, growth 20%, NRR 100%. −2.43 + 0.80 + 1.24 + 4.38 = 3.99x ARR. The estimate never goes below 1.0x. Formula version: saascapital-2024-v1.

Limits

  • SaaS Capital fit the model on 55 private valuation events, minimum $2M ARR. Below $2M ARR, buyers usually price on owner earnings (SDE).
  • The model explains about a third of the variation between deals (R² 0.361).
  • Customer concentration, owner dependency and the number of competing buyers are not in the formula. They move real offers by 2x or more.
  • Below about 15% growth, buyers often price on EBITDA instead. See the BVR DealStats multiples by revenue bracket.

Questions

How is the private SaaS multiple estimated?
With the model SaaS Capital published in 2024: -2.43 + 0.19 x public index + 6.21 x growth + 4.38 x NRR, with growth and NRR as decimals. The public index uses market cap over annualized revenue.
How accurate is the estimate?
SaaS Capital fit the model on 55 private valuations of companies with at least $2M ARR. It explains about a third of the variation between deals (R squared 0.361). Customer concentration, owner dependency and the number of competing buyers move real offers by 2x or more.
What does 10 more points of NRR add?
About 0.44x ARR in this model (4.38 x 0.10). Moving from 10% to 40% growth adds about 1.86x (6.21 x 0.30).

For information only. Not investment advice or a valuation opinion. Published by Livmo, a sell-side M&A advisor for software companies.