Private SaaS multiple estimate
Last verified November 6, 2026 · Source: SaaS Valuation Index run-rate (median market cap / run-rate revenue), Nov 6, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Private SaaS companies trade on a multiple of ARR. This page estimates that multiple from the public SaaS index, your growth rate and your net revenue retention (NRR). At 20% growth and 100% NRR, with the public index at 5.03x (SaaS Valuation Index run-rate), the estimate is 4.15x ARR.
−2.43 + 0.96 (index) + 1.24 (growth) + 4.38 (NRR) = 4.15x
Public index default: 5.03x, SaaS Valuation Index run-rate (median market cap / run-rate revenue), Nov 6, 2026, 2:05 PM ET. Free, no email. For a full estimate with 36 inputs, use the SaaS Valuation Calculator.
The formula
Private ARR multiple = −2.43 + 0.19 × public index + 6.21 × growth + 4.38 × NRR
The model comes from SaaS Capital's What's Your SaaS Company Worth 2024. Growth and NRR are decimals: 20% growth is 0.20 and 100% NRR is 1.00. The public index uses SaaS Capital's method, market cap divided by annualized revenue. The default index value is the SaaS Valuation Index run-rate (median market cap / run-rate revenue), Nov 6, 2026, 2:05 PM ET, which uses the same method: median market cap divided by the latest quarter's revenue times 4.
Worked example: index 4.2x, growth 20%, NRR 100%. −2.43 + 0.80 + 1.24 + 4.38 = 3.99x ARR. The estimate never goes below 1.0x. Formula version: saascapital-2024-v1.
Limits
- SaaS Capital fit the model on 55 private valuation events, minimum $2M ARR. Below $2M ARR, buyers usually price on owner earnings (SDE).
- The model explains about a third of the variation between deals (R² 0.361).
- Customer concentration, owner dependency and the number of competing buyers are not in the formula. They move real offers by 2x or more.
- Below about 15% growth, buyers often price on EBITDA instead. See the BVR DealStats multiples by revenue bracket.
Questions
- How is the private SaaS multiple estimated?
- With the model SaaS Capital published in 2024: -2.43 + 0.19 x public index + 6.21 x growth + 4.38 x NRR, with growth and NRR as decimals. The public index uses market cap over annualized revenue.
- How accurate is the estimate?
- SaaS Capital fit the model on 55 private valuations of companies with at least $2M ARR. It explains about a third of the variation between deals (R squared 0.361). Customer concentration, owner dependency and the number of competing buyers move real offers by 2x or more.
- What does 10 more points of NRR add?
- About 0.44x ARR in this model (4.38 x 0.10). Moving from 10% to 40% growth adds about 1.86x (6.21 x 0.30).
For information only. Not investment advice or a valuation opinion. Published by Livmo, a sell-side M&A advisor for software companies.